Mistry warns banks risk becoming mere infrastructure by 2032
Dharmesh Mistry, a veteran of banking and fintech with more than 30 years of experience, has made a set of predictions for 2032 that he claims are uniquely audacious because they are falsifiable, with specific names and dates attached. Unlike typical future-gazing commentary, Mistry argues that predictions without risk teach nothing.
His book, published last month, includes forecasts about who will dominate by 2032 and which companies will quietly support them from behind the scenes. The author acknowledges that naming individuals in competitive predictions carries inherent risk, as execution failures, leadership changes, or acquisitions can derail outcomes. However, Mistry emphasizes that the most troubling prediction he made does not concern winners or losers but rather a systemic shift that may occur without anyone actively choosing it.
While some might expect his most unsettling forecast to involve technological advancement, such as quantum computing maturity, Mistry stands by his assertion that the real danger lies in a different kind of claim: the belief that when consolidation hits around 2032, roughly nine out of ten banks will operate as mere infrastructure providers—“pipes” delivering services to platforms that have already captured their customers.
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What makes this prediction deeply concerning, he explains, is that these banks will not have been defeated in fair competition or outmaneuvered by innovative rivals. Instead, they will have been carried away by accumulated inertia, gradual compromises, and annual strategy reviews that consistently concluded timing was not yet right. Mistry clarifies that he does not view being a pipe as inherently negative if a company chooses that path deliberately.
The true horror, he says, is the absence of a decision altogether. This distinction is critical because traditional banking revolves around competition, market share, and clear winners and losers—concepts institutions understand well. But abdication represents a different kind of threat, one that lacks a clear risk management framework. Prudence, when misapplied as inaction, can become a silent killer.
Mistry has observed this pattern repeatedly in smaller decisions over his career and finds no evidence in current annual reports that banks have disabled this mechanism for the largest strategic question of all. He adds a personal note: having been wrong about timing before, including a start-up that failed due to premature action, he respects dates but distinguishes between markets not ready and markets ready yet unchosen. Timing problems can resolve themselves; choosing problems cannot, especially when unnamed.
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According to Mistry, the only way to disprove his most feared prediction is simple and bold: a Monday morning, a named owner, a budget, and a deadline. Any bank that commits to such a decision removes itself from the nine-in-ten scenario. He expresses a genuine desire to see this prediction falsified, stating it is not a forecast of inevitability but of habit, habits that can be intentionally broken. The article concludes with Mistry reflecting that he would prefer to be wrong about the winners than right about the losers, emphasizing the importance of accountability in forecasting. His approach challenges conventional wisdom, urging institutions to act decisively rather than drift into irrelevance through inaction.
About the Author
Editorial Contributor, FinTech Futures Dharmesh Mistry has been in banking for more than 30 years both in senior positions at Tier 1 banks and as a serial entrepreneur. He has been at the forefront of banking technology and innovation, from the very first internet and mobile banking apps to artificial intelligence (AI) and virtual reality (VR). He has been on both sides of the fence and he’s not afraid to share his opinions. He founded proptech start-up AskHomey (sold to a private investor in spring 2023) and is an investor and mentor in proptech and fintech. He also co-hosts the Demystify Podcast. All opinions are his own.
