Storm Lala Bears Down on Hawaii

Tropical storm Lala in the central Pacific could make the first United States hurricane landfall of 2026 this weekend, as the storm is forecast to intensify and has the Big Island of Hawaii in its sights.

The National Hurricane Center raised a hurricane watch immediately after naming tropical storm Lala on Thursday, as it was forecast to near hurricane strength once it approaches Hawaii on Saturday.

That watch has been upgraded to a hurricane warning, and the NHC said in its latest advisory that tropical storm Lala is now forecast to be a hurricane on approach to Big Island, with weather conditions there and across Hawaii set to deteriorate as a result.

Tropical storm Lala currently has sustained winds that max out at around 60 mph, with further strengthening expected.

The NHC noted that the core of storm Lala is expected to near the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday, while some model runs show the eye making landfall on that day, which would make Lala the first US hurricane landfall of 2026.

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Lala could either give the Big Island of Hawaii a glancing blow or make a direct landfall, perhaps also affecting other islands in the chain.

The insurance-linked securities market has exposure in Hawaii, through a number of outstanding catastrophe bonds and private ILS or collateralized reinsurance arrangements, but a Category 1 Lala, as the forecasts suggest, would not pose any meaningful threat to this market.

Specialist ILS manager Twelve Securis commented, “Lala is currently forecast to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend as a weak Category 1 hurricane, although a direct landfall along the southern coast of Hawaii’s Big Island remains possible.

Potential impacts from Lala are expected to be dominated by heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and localized storm surges, which could lead to damages, including through landslides and flooding, but they are not expected to have significant ILS impacts.

The NHC warned of the potential for stronger than anticipated wind speeds for higher ground, while highlighting that high levels of rainfall could be a localized concern.

Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are expected across Maui and the Big Island, with maximum totals of 25 inches possible across the Big Island.

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Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected across the remainder of the island chain.

This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, and the latest forecast for tropical storm Lala suggests between 1 and 3 feet of storm surge is possible.

Our contact Brendan Lane Larson, CEO of AbsoluteClimo, cautioned that any storm that scrapes along the island chain can still drive meaningful human and financial impacts for the local population and economy.

The Atlantic remains quiet at this time, despite a string of tropical waves emerging off the coast of Africa.

While forecast models do show some of these as having the potential to become tropical disturbances, none at this stage are seen as likely to survive their passage west due to dry air.